CSEC MATHEMATICS · MODULE 2 · LESSON B3

Probability and Making Inferences

Sample spaces for coins, dice and cards, simple probability, expected frequency, relative frequency, contingency tables and drawing sound conclusions from data.

Intermediate Secondary Level MathematicsM2 1.10M2 1.11≈ 35 min🎮 3 games
Before you start

By the end of this lesson you can…

Step 1 · Watch

Explainer video

5 narrated scenes. Press play, listen and read along — the points appear as they are explained. Use ‹ Prev / Next › or the scene bar to jump to any scene.

LESSON B3 · EXPLAINER

Probability and Making Inferences

A weather forecast says 70% chance of rain. A coin has a 50% chance of heads. What do these numbers really mean — and how do you work them out?

Narration uses your device’s built-in voice. No sound? Switch to “Captions only” — the captions advance on their own.

Explore in 3D

Probability by experiment

Roll a die many times and watch the relative frequencies.

Step 2 · Read

Key notes

Copy these into your notebook in your own words — that is how they stick.

Probability

P(E) = n(E) ÷ n(S) for equally likely outcomes; 0 ≤ P ≤ 1; P(not E) = 1 − P(E).

Coins and dice

Coin: H, T. Die: 1–6. Two coins: 4 outcomes. Two dice: 36 outcomes. Coin + die: 12.

Cards

52 cards; 4 suits × 13; 26 red, 26 black; 12 face cards; 4 aces; 4 kings.

Expected frequency

Probability × number of trials.

Relative frequency

Number of successes ÷ number of trials (experimental probability).

Sample-space diagram

Systematic list or grid so no outcomes are missed.

Contingency table

Rows × columns of counts; read the cell for “both” and divide by the grand total.

Inference

State evidence, compare, mention limits (sample size, bias), use cautious wording.

EXAM TIPS & COMMON MISTAKES

  • List the sample space systematically (a grid or tree) so you do not miss outcomes.
  • Give probabilities as fractions in simplest form, decimals or percentages — never as a ratio like 1 : 6.
  • Expected frequency is NOT guaranteed — say “expect about”.
  • A conclusion needs evidence: always quote at least one number from the data.
Play & practise

Games

3 quick games on this lesson. Earn XP and badges as you play — your best score for each game is saved. Games are for practice and do not change your exam readiness. More games in the Mathematics Arcade.

Step 3 · Practise

Paper 1 practice — multiple choice

8 items modelled on real CSEC Paper 1 questions. Choose one answer for each, then check. Aim for 80% or better. Work each item on paper first.

CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

1. A fair die is rolled once. The probability of getting a prime number is

Answer: B. Prime numbers 2, 3, 5: 3/6 = 1/2.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

2. Two fair dice are rolled. The probability that the sum is 7 is

Answer: C. 6 favourable outcomes out of 36.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

3. A coin is tossed twice. The probability of getting two heads is

Answer: D. One outcome (HH) out of four.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

4. A card is drawn at random from a standard pack of 52 cards. The probability that it is a face card is

Answer: A. 12 face cards: 12/52 = 3/13.
Based on CSEC P2 January 2025, Question 5(b)(iii)

5. A fair die is rolled 72 times. The number of sixes expected is

Answer: B. 72 × 1/6 = 12.
Adapted from CSEC P1 May/June 2024 (contingency table item)

6. A respondent is selected at random from 100 people (table: P 60 and R 40; positive attitudes: P 25, R 12). The probability that the respondent is from group P AND has a positive attitude is

Answer: A. 25 out of 100 = 0.25.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

7. A coin and a die are thrown together. The number of outcomes in the sample space is

Answer: C. 2 × 6 = 12.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

8. The probability that it rains tomorrow is 0.3. The probability that it does NOT rain is

Answer: C. 1 − 0.3 = 0.7.
Step 4 · Apply

Paper 2 practice — structured questions

Write full answers, then reveal the mark scheme and tick the points you earned (16 marks in total). Show all your working — method marks count. Your answers are saved on this device.

CSEC Paper 02 style · Module 2 (Probability)

Question 1 [8 marks]

A fair coin is tossed and a fair six-sided die is rolled.

(a) List the sample space. [3]

MARK SCHEME — (a) (max 3)

(b) Find the probability of getting a head and an even number. [2]

MARK SCHEME — (b) (max 2)

(c) Find the probability of getting a tail OR a six. [2]

MARK SCHEME — (c) (max 2)

(d) The coin is tossed 200 times. How many heads would you expect? [1]

MARK SCHEME — (d) (max 1)

CSEC Paper 02 style · Module 2 (Two dice and inference)

Question 2 [8 marks]

Two fair dice are rolled and the scores are added.

(a) Show that the probability of a total of at least 10 is 1/6. [3]

MARK SCHEME — (a) (max 3)

(b) Find the probability that the total is 2 or 12. [2]

MARK SCHEME — (b) (max 2)

(c) In an experiment the dice are thrown 50 times and a total of 7 occurs 9 times. Compare the relative frequency with the theoretical probability. [3]

MARK SCHEME — (c) (max 3)

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Sources

Where this topic appears in CSEC papers

Find these in your own past-paper booklets for extra timed practice. Items above are written in the style of these papers; any adapted from a specific question say so.