CSEC MATHEMATICS · MODULE 3 · LESSON C3

Probability: Addition and Multiplication Rules, Tree Diagrams

Mutually exclusive and independent events, the addition and multiplication rules, tree diagrams with and without replacement, contingency tables and experimental probability.

Higher Concepts in Secondary Level MathematicsM3 1.10≈ 40 min🎮 3 games
Before you start

By the end of this lesson you can…

Step 1 · Watch

Explainer video

5 narrated scenes. Press play, listen and read along — the points appear as they are explained. Use ‹ Prev / Next › or the scene bar to jump to any scene.

LESSON C3 · EXPLAINER

Probability: Addition and Multiplication Rules, Tree Diagrams

“What is the probability of at least one head in three tosses?” “Two red balls without replacement?” Two rules and a tree diagram answer them all.

Narration uses your device’s built-in voice. No sound? Switch to “Captions only” — the captions advance on their own.

Explore in 3D

Probability by experiment

Roll a die many times and compare with the theoretical probability.

Step 2 · Read

Key notes

Copy these into your notebook in your own words — that is how they stick.

Mutually exclusive

Cannot happen together: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

Not exclusive

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B).

Independent

One does not affect the other: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B).

At least one

1 − P(none).

Tree diagrams

Multiply along branches; add paths. Branches from one point sum to 1.

Without replacement

Probabilities change after the first draw (denominator decreases).

Contingency tables

Probability = cell ÷ grand total; check the table adds up.

Experimental probability

Relative frequency = successes ÷ trials; approaches theoretical value with more trials.

EXAM TIPS & COMMON MISTAKES

  • “AND” → multiply (independent); “OR” → add (exclusive). Underline the word in the question.
  • On a tree diagram check each pair of branches adds to 1.
  • Without replacement: reduce BOTH the number of the chosen colour and the total for the second draw.
  • “At least one” is easiest as 1 − P(none).
Play & practise

Games

3 quick games on this lesson. Earn XP and badges as you play — your best score for each game is saved. Games are for practice and do not change your exam readiness. More games in the Mathematics Arcade.

Step 3 · Practise

Paper 1 practice — multiple choice

8 items modelled on real CSEC Paper 1 questions. Choose one answer for each, then check. Aim for 80% or better. Work each item on paper first.

CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

1. A fair die is rolled once. The probability of getting a 2 or a 5 is

Answer: C. 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3 (mutually exclusive).
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

2. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. The probability of a head and a six is

Answer: D. 1/2 × 1/6 = 1/12.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

3. A coin is tossed three times. The probability of getting at least one head is

Answer: A. 1 − 1/8 = 7/8.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

4. A bag has 5 red and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn with replacement. The probability of two red balls is

Answer: B. 5/8 × 5/8 = 25/64.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

5. A bag has 5 red and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement. The probability of two red balls is

Answer: C. 5/8 × 4/7 = 20/56 = 5/14.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

6. A student is chosen at random from the 40 in the table (boys: 10 play football, 8 do not; girls: 6 play football, 16 do not). The probability that the student is a girl who does not play football is

Answer: D. 16 out of 40.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

7. A die is rolled 60 times and a six occurs 12 times. The relative frequency of a six is

Answer: A. 12/60 = 0.2.
CSEC Paper 01 style · SO 1.10

8. P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.5 and A and B are mutually exclusive. P(A or B) is

Answer: C. 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8.
Step 4 · Apply

Paper 2 practice — structured questions

Write full answers, then reveal the mark scheme and tick the points you earned (18 marks in total). Show all your working — method marks count. Your answers are saved on this device.

CSEC Paper 02 style · Module 3 (Probability — tree diagrams)

Question 1 [9 marks]

A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random, one after the other.

(a) The first ball is replaced before the second is drawn. Calculate the probability that (i) both balls are red, (ii) the balls are different colours. [4]

MARK SCHEME — (a) (max 4)

(b) The first ball is NOT replaced. Calculate the probability that (i) both balls are red, (ii) the second ball is blue. [5]

MARK SCHEME — (b) (max 5)

CSEC Paper 02 style · Module 3 (Probability — tables and events)

Question 2 [9 marks]

The table shows how 40 students travel to school. Boys: 12 by bus, 6 by car; girls: 14 by bus, 8 by car.

(a) Complete the contingency table with totals. [2]

MARK SCHEME — (a) (max 2)

(b) A student is chosen at random. Find the probability that the student (i) travels by bus, (ii) is a girl who travels by car. [3]

MARK SCHEME — (b) (max 3)

(c) A fair die is rolled and a fair coin is tossed. Find the probability of an even number and a tail. [2]

MARK SCHEME — (c) (max 2)

(d) Two events A and B are mutually exclusive with P(A) = 0.35 and P(B) = 0.45. Find P(A or B) and P(neither A nor B). [2]

MARK SCHEME — (d) (max 2)

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Sources

Where this topic appears in CSEC papers

Find these in your own past-paper booklets for extra timed practice. Items above are written in the style of these papers; any adapted from a specific question say so.